Childhood PM2.5 exposure and upward mobility in the United States

Although it is well documented that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases the risk of several adverse health outcomes, less is known about its relationship with economic opportunity. Previous studies have relied on regression modeling, which implied strict assumptions regarding confounding adjustments and did not explore geographical heterogeneity. We obtained data for 63,165 US census tracts (86% of all census tracts in the United States) on absolute upward mobility (AUM) defined as the mean income rank in adulthood of children born to families in the 25th percentile of the national income distribution. We applied and compared several state-of-the-art confounding adjustment methods to estimate the overall and county-specific associations of childhood exposure to PM2.5 and AUM controlling for many census tract–level confounders. We estimate that census tracts with a 1 g/m3 higher PM2.5 concentrations in 1982 are associated with a statistically significant 1.146% (95% CI: 0.834, 1.458) lower AUM in 2015, on average. We also showed evidence that this relationship varies spatially between counties, exhibiting a more pronounced negative relationship in the Midwest and the South.