The EU’s Tripartite Approach Towards Belarus and the Limits of Resilience

This article examines how the European Union (EU) reacted to the protests that erupted in Belarus against the re-election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in 2020 and the repressive measures he took against his political adversaries, using the conceptual lens of resilience and pragmatism, two concepts endorsed in the 2016 European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) that seem most appropriate for our analysis. However, while resilience is less demanding than the promotion of democracy, it can face obstacles created by a political leadership hostile to external influences, repressive measures against opposition forces and the support of a powerful external actor, in this case, Russia. The EU has thus designed a three-level strategy targeting the current leadership, the leaders of the opposition and the people. This tripartite approach may confer various different meanings on resilience, including resistance. The article reflects critically on resilience in complex situations, highlighting its features, advantages and limitations.